Your first fundraising round: forecast and metrics investors expect

Quick answer. Preparing the financial side of a fundraising round means aligning three consistent pieces: a 3-year forecast tied to defensible assumptions, a handful of metrics investors read first (burn rate, runway, unit economics, growth), and a data room that proves your numbers. All of it must tell the same story, with no mismatch between the pitch and the files.

Most first rounds do not stall on the idea or the market: they stall on the financial credibility of the file. A fund receives hundreds of plans a year. It is not looking for the most ambitious forecast, it is looking for the one whose mechanics it understands and whose every assumption it can question. When the forecast, the pitch and the data room contradict one another, trust drops, and so does the valuation.

This article does not cover the legal flow of a round (term sheet, due diligence, shareholders' agreement). It focuses on what we see on the numbers side: how to build a forecast that withstands questions, which metrics to prepare, and how to organise a financial data room. For the general timeline of a round, see the stages from pre-seed to series A.

A seed-stage forecast is not meant to predict the future to the cent. No one believes that, least of all you. Its job is to show that you understand what moves your model: which levers, at what speed, at what cost.

A fund looks first at the structure of the assumptions, not at net profit in year three. It wants to know where revenue comes from (number of customers times basket, or volume times price), what drives the acquisition cost, and how payroll tracks growth. If each line derives from a named, editable assumption, the model is judged serious. If revenue rockets with no identifiable cause, it is judged decorative.

The forecast must also be dated and bounded. An investor tests sensitivity: what happens if acquisition costs 30% more, if the sales cycle stretches by two months, if a key hire slips by a quarter? Prepare these variants before the meeting and you will keep control of the conversation.

The three scenarios to present#

Our read: never defend a valuation on the ambitious scenario alone. The fund will buy the base case and read the ambitious one as a bonus. Conversely, a conservative scenario showing a survivable runway even if things are delayed is often what unlocks the deal.

Beyond the forecast, a few indicators come up in every meeting. Knowing them by heart, being able to compute them and explain their trend is a sign of maturity.

Burn rate and runway#

Burn rate is the net cash consumed each month. Runway is the number of months your current cash gives you at the current burn. A fund wants to know how many months the round will finance, and which milestones (revenue, hires, product metrics) will be reached before the next raise.

One point many founders underestimate: the runway must include the planned increase in burn. Hiring three people after the round mechanically raises the burn. Presenting a runway computed on the pre-round burn gives a flattering but false number. For the calculation and steering method, see how to steer your burn rate and runway.

Unit economics#

Unit economics answer a simple question: do you make money per unit? The two central indicators are the cost to acquire a customer (CAC) and the value that customer brings over their lifetime (LTV, or cumulative margin). The ratio between the two, and the CAC payback time, tell whether growth is profitable or merely burns cash faster.

An investor does not expect perfect unit economics at seed stage: they expect you to understand yours, to know what must improve and how. A clear gross margin, a documented CAC and a retention trajectory are worth more than a theoretical LTV/CAC ratio you cannot reconstruct.

A typical dashboard#

Two schemes materially change the cash profile of a young innovative company, and an attentive investor will check that you have built them in.

France's research tax credit (crédit d'impôt recherche, CIR) benefits companies that incur research and development spending. Its standard rate is 30% on the portion of research expenses up to 100 million euros, and 5% on the portion above (French Tax Code art. 244 quater B; official tax guidance BOI-BIC-RICI-10-10-30-10, version in force since 13 August 2025). These rates are unchanged in both 2025 and 2026. The 2025 Finance Act did, however, lower the flat operating-expenses allowance applied to staff costs from 43% to 40% (art. 244 quater B II-c) and removed certain uplifts, without touching the standard CIR rate.

Do not confuse this with the innovation tax credit (crédit d'impôt innovation, CII), reserved for SMEs designing prototypes or pilot installations of new products (Tax Code art. 244 quater B II-k). It is the CII, not the CIR, whose rate was reduced from 30% to 20% for expenses incurred from 1 January 2025, in exchange for extending the scheme to 31 December 2027. The CIR/CII confusion is common in the forecasts we review: it distorts projected cash and weakens the file at the fund's first technical question.

The young innovative company status (jeune entreprise innovante, JEI), for its part, grants an exemption from employer social contributions on the pay of staff assigned to research, within the conditions and limits set by the rules in force. These schemes are not a detail: a meaningful CIR can extend runway by several months. They must, however, be estimated prudently and the eligibility documented, because a fund will check the calculation base.

The data room is where your numbers are proven. A messy or incomplete data room slows due diligence and raises concern. A clean one speeds things up and reassures. The golden rule: everything you claim in the pitch must be backed by a document.

Minimum financial checklist#

• Annual accounts and tax returns for closed financial years (or interim accounts if first year)
• General ledger, trial balance and latest cash statements
• 3-year forecast with editable assumptions and the three scenarios
• Table of historical metrics (burn, runway, MRR, CAC, retention)
• Up-to-date cap table, including granted BSPCE and remaining pool
• Schedule of debts, repayment timelines and off-balance-sheet commitments (leases, key supplier contracts)
• Supporting documents for incentives: CIR decisions, JEI letters, grant agreements
• Significant customer contracts and payment terms

The six preparation steps#

1. First make the bookkeeping reliable: a data room is only as good as the underlying, up-to-date and consistent accounts.
2. Reconstruct historical metrics over 12 to 24 months, with the calculation method written down.
3. Build the forecast from named assumptions, then derive burn and runway.
4. Prepare the three scenarios and a sensitivity test on two or three variables.
5. Organise documents into clear folders and keep a dated index.
6. Have the whole thing reviewed by a third party who will ask the fund's questions before the fund does.

For the detailed version and a back-planning schedule, follow our method to build a data room in 90 days.

In the files we review before a round, the most frequent cause of distrust is not a single wrong figure: it is inconsistency. The pitch states one MRR, the data room shows another. The forecast assumes a gross margin the accounts do not confirm. The stated runway ignores hires already signed.

Every gap, even minor, forces the fund to wonder what you are not in control of. Before opening the data room, run a line-by-line consistency check between the pitch, the forecast and the accounts. It is the least visible and most profitable operation in the whole preparation.

A young software company is preparing a first round. The forecast shows a credible trajectory, but the communicated runway (18 months) rests on the pre-round burn. After factoring in the three planned hires and rising infrastructure costs, the real runway comes out at 12 months. Made before the meeting, the correction changes the discussion: instead of discovering the gap in due diligence, the fund sees a team steering its cash with clarity. The conversation shifts from doubt to the milestones to reach with the funds.

A first round is won on consistency and command, not on stated ambition. The best file is not the one that promises the most, it is the one whose every figure holds up when pulled. Preparing the financial side upfront, with an outside eye that anticipates the questions, often makes the difference between a round that drags and a round that closes. Our role is to help structure your startup's financial steering and to prepare the valuation ahead of a funding round, so you arrive at the meeting with a file that inspires confidence.

• The forecast is judged on the quality of the assumptions, not on net profit in year three.
• Prepare three scenarios (base, conservative, ambitious) and defend the valuation on the base case.
• Master your metrics: burn rate, runway including the rise in burn, unit economics, growth and retention.
• Distinguish the CIR (standard rate 30% then 5%) from the CII (20% since 2025): confusing them distorts projected cash.
• The data room must prove every claim in the pitch; inconsistency between documents is the top trust killer.
• Have the file reviewed by a third party who asks the fund's questions before the fund does.