Financial Forecast & Business Plan in Paris — Expert Accountant

Financial Forecast & Business Plan in Paris — Built by a Chartered Accountant#

A financial forecast — comprising a projected income statement, projected balance sheet, monthly cash flow plan and financing table — is the document that banks, investors and public funding bodies examine before committing capital. A forecast built by a chartered accountant is not simply an optimistic spreadsheet: it is a rigorous planning tool, a negotiation instrument and, above all, a credibility signal that distinguishes serious projects from wishful thinking.

Hayot Expertise, at 58 rue de Monceau, Paris 8, produces financial forecasts for every context that requires them: business creation, bank loan application, fundraising, business acquisition, new site opening, new partner entry, or restructuring. Our approach combines accounting rigour, deep knowledge of bank lending criteria and direct experience of the Parisian financing market.

The projected balance sheet is the forward-looking snapshot of your company's financial position at a future date. On the asset side: projected fixed assets, stock, trade receivables and cash. On the liability side: cumulative equity (capital plus projected profits), financial debt (loans) and operating liabilities (suppliers, payroll taxes, VAT payable). It is the logical endpoint of a coherent forecasting process that starts with the income statement and cash flow plan.

In 2026, banks and guarantee bodies (Bpifrance, France Active, SIAGI) have tightened their documentation requirements: they systematically request 3 complete years of projections, explicit assumptions, a detailed initial financing plan and stress scenarios. An insufficient or manifestly optimistic forecast is the primary reason for professional loan rejection — ahead of personal creditworthiness analysis.

The four documents of a complete financial business plan#

1. Projected income statement (P&L) over 3 years: projected revenue by segment (product, client type, channel), variable and fixed costs, EBIT, EBITDA, net profit after corporate tax or income tax depending on the legal structure

2. Monthly cash flow plan over 12–24 months: receipts and payments month by month, showing cumulative cash balance — the document that demonstrates whether your business can survive payment timing gaps without insurmountable cash pressure

3. Initial financing table (sources and uses): sources (equity, grants, bank loans, honour loans, love money) matched against uses (investment, working capital, start-up costs) — must balance or show a surplus

4. Projected balance sheet at year 1, 2 and 3: solvency indicators (debt/equity ratio, net working capital, working capital requirement) that banks systematically check

Business creators#

This is the most frequent use case. Any business creation requiring external financing — bank loan, microcredit, honour loan (prêt d'honneur Initiative France or Réseau Entreprendre), ARCE grant from France Travail — requires a complete financial forecast. Even without external financing, the forecast is the tool that forces the founder to test their assumptions against economic reality. It frequently reveals blind spots that intuition alone cannot anticipate: revenue ramp-up timeline, VAT impact on early-month cash, actual working capital requirement for the sector.

Our firm supports business creators from legal structure selection through to a complete funding application — see our business creation service.

Business buyers (acquisition financing)#

Acquiring a business almost always involves significant bank financing. The bank will fund part of the acquisition price and require a post-acquisition forecast demonstrating that the acquired business generates sufficient cash flow to service the acquisition debt while funding the buyer's salary. This post-acquisition forecast is technically complex: it must integrate the LBO debt, restate the previous owner's remuneration at market rates, and project the financial impact of planned operational changes.

Growing companies seeking bank financing#

An existing SME investing — equipment purchase, premises extension, hiring a sales team, acquiring a competitor — often needs a business loan. Banks require an updated forecast integrating the planned investment, its financing and its impact on future profitability and cash. The quality of the forecast is a determining factor in obtaining the best interest rates and repayment terms.

Startups and scale-ups fundraising#

In an equity raise (business angels, VC, growth funds), the financial forecast serves two distinct purposes: demonstrating to investors that the business model is viable and that injected funds will reach the next milestone; and anchoring the valuation negotiation. A fundraising forecast must be simultaneously ambitious (to justify the requested valuation) and credible (to avoid undermining the founder's credibility) — a balancing act requiring both sector knowledge and mastery of valuation mechanics.

See our dedicated service: Outsourced CFO for startups and SMEs.

Property investors and SCIs#

Creating or financing an SCI (Société Civile Immobilière) requires an adapted forecast: gross and net rental yield, depreciation impact (for IS-taxed SCIs), cash flow after debt service, simulation of property income taxation vs. corporate tax. Banks financing buy-to-let property examine this forecast carefully to assess project viability and repayment capacity.

Step 1 — Scoping meeting (90–120 min)#

We start with a thorough discussion to understand your activity, your business model, your development assumptions and your financing context. We gather all relevant information: sector market data, equipment quotes, commercial leases, any financing offers already received, historical accounts where available.

Step 2 — Documented assumptions#

Every line of the forecast rests on an explicit, justifiable assumption. We systematically document sources (sector studies, INSEE data, industry benchmarks, supplier quotes, customer letters of intent) so that your file is unassailable under bank or investor questioning. A forecast without documented assumptions is a forecast without credibility.

Key assumptions we build with you: revenue ramp-up curve, cost structure (fixed vs. variable), payment terms and working capital cycle, investment plan and depreciation, tax position (IS, VAT, CFE), director's remuneration and social charges under the applicable regime (TNS vs. employee-equivalent).

The key assumptions we build with you, line by line:

• Revenue ramp-up curve: number of clients or transactions per month, average order value, seasonality, customer acquisition lead time
• Cost structure: incompressible fixed costs (rent, insurance, SaaS subscriptions, permanent payroll) and variable costs (COGS, sales commissions, travel expenses)
• Payment terms: customers (30, 45 or 60 days depending on the sector) and suppliers — a direct driver of working capital requirement (BFR) and the cash flow plan
• Investment and depreciation: the three-year capital expenditure plan, depreciation periods, and the resulting impact on profit and the balance sheet
• Tax position: corporate tax (IS), VAT, CFE (local business tax), CVAE where applicable, and the director's social charges depending on status (TNS — self-employed — vs. employee-equivalent)
• Financing plan: interest rates, terms and grace periods on each loan

Step 3 — Modelling and consistency checks#

We build the model in a professional Excel file or directly in Pennylane for existing clients. The model is designed to be comprehensible and adjustable — you can update assumptions yourself after delivery. We systematically verify consistency across the four documents (P&L → cash flow → financing table → balance sheet) and ensure that VAT, corporate tax and social charge balances are correctly reflected in the cash flow plan.

Step 4 — Scenarios and sensitivity analysis#

We build three scenarios systematically: base, upside and downside. The downside scenario is often the most instructive: it answers the question "is the project viable if actual revenue is 20–30% below forecast?" — exactly what banks and Bpifrance guarantee bodies test.

Step 5 — Document delivery and presentation support#

We deliver a complete, professionally formatted financial package with a one-page executive summary explaining the key project parameters and assumptions. On request, we attend bank meetings or investor pitches to present and defend the numbers.

1. Omitting working capital (BFR): many founders project a positive P&L but forget that the business will absorb cash during ramp-up (stock to finance, paying suppliers before receiving customer payments). A cash flow plan without correctly calculated BFR systematically underestimates financing needs.

2. Confusing revenue with receipts: VAT collected is not income — it is a liability to the tax authority. A cash flow forecast that includes VAT in receipts without deducting it from payments is wrong.

3. Forgetting self-employed director social charges (TNS): a SARL gérant subject to the TNS regime pays social charges in year N+1 on year N earnings. The cash timing difference is significant and frequently omitted.

4. Presenting only one scenario: a file without a downside scenario is perceived as naive by bankers. It must demonstrate that the founder has anticipated risks.

5. Neglecting renewal investment: some three-year forecasts forget to provision for equipment replacement or the maintenance work the business will inevitably require, which overstates free cash flow.

Case 1 — Quick-service restaurant franchise, Paris 15th#

A founder wanted to open a quick-service restaurant franchise. The franchise entry fee, fit-out works and opening stock represented an investment of €280,000. He was contributing €80,000 of his own equity and sought €200,000 in bank financing.

We built a three-year forecast covering: ramp-up of average spend per cover and number of covers over six months, precise calculation of the working capital requirement specific to food service (short days-sales-outstanding but weekly stock rotation), the impact of Parisian seasonality, and projection of loan repayment alongside the manager's remuneration.

Result: financing secured from two banks, including a 70% Bpifrance-guaranteed loan. The lead banker praised the quality of the file, citing the robustness of the cash flow plan explicitly.

Case 2 — Acquisition of a B2B consulting firm, €1.2m turnover#

A manager wanted to acquire the consulting company in which he was already an associate director. Acquisition price: €600,000. Financing: €150,000 of personal equity plus €450,000 of LBO bank debt.

We built the post-acquisition forecast integrating: servicing of the acquisition debt (principal plus interest), restatement of remuneration (the former owner paid himself €120,000 gross versus the buyer's planned €80,000, freeing €40,000 of additional repayment capacity), and a scenario in which a client representing 15% of turnover is lost.

Result: LBO credit obtained in five weeks, with a 12-month principal grace period negotiated on the basis of our cash flow analysis.

Case 3 — Series A raise, HR SaaS start-up, €800k ARR#

A Paris start-up was preparing a €3m Series A raise from VC funds. The founder needed a coherent three-year financial model aligned with standard SaaS metrics.

We built a model integrating: ARR, MRR, monthly churn (target below 1.5%), CAC and LTV by acquisition channel, a detailed hiring plan by department, and a projected break-even at month 30. The model served as the direct basis for the data room submitted to the funds.

Result: €3m raised from two VC funds, at a €9m pre-money valuation.

Indicative fees, depending on complexity and context. Request a free quote.