Startup valuation simulator: DCF and comparables
Estimate an indicative valuation range using a simplified DCF and revenue comparables, then identify the assumptions you need to defend.
Combine simplified DCF and revenue multiples to produce a range.
Test growth, margin, discount rate and comparable multiple.
Separate indicative value, negotiation and financial documentation.
A defensible valuation relies on assumptions, not magic
DCF depends on forecasts and a discount rate; comparables depend on market context, sector, growth and revenue quality. The simulator brings both views together to create a range, never a guaranteed price.
Simplified DCF
DCF projects future cash flows and discounts them. It is useful when growth, margin and funding assumptions are coherent.
- Highly sensitive to discount rate and terminal growth.
- Must be reconciled with cash plan and hiring.
- Less robust when recurring revenue is still limited.
Comparables
A comparative method applies a multiple to an indicator such as ARR or revenue. It must reflect growth quality and sector context.
- A multiple must be supported by growth, retention, margin and market.
- Comparables need to match the company stage.
- An excessive multiple creates risk for the next round.
Negotiation range
The output should support discussion. Final value also depends on cash, debt, governance and deal terms.
- Prepare low, central and high cases.
- Document each assumption in the business plan.
- Connect valuation, dilution and runway.
Assumptions to document
A valuation without defendable assumptions weakens negotiation. The model must be readable for founders, investors and advisers.
- ARR or recurring revenue, churn, gross margin and target EBITDA margin.
- Growth forecasts, hiring, CAPEX and working capital needs.
- Discount rate, terminal growth and comparable multiple.
- Debt, net cash, investment terms and fundraising calendar.
Hayot Expertise analysis
We favour documented valuation: financial assumptions, business-plan coherence, revenue quality, net cash and deal clauses. The useful value is the one you can defend.
The underestimated risk
An optimistic valuation can increase next-round pressure and create down-round risk. A low valuation can dilute founders unnecessarily.
What the founder must decide
- The central financial case and prudent variants.
- The defendable multiple or discount rate.
- The valuation compatible with target dilution.
- The items to document in the data room.
2026 watchpoints
- Refresh comparables prudently according to market context.
- Do not use a SaaS multiple without comparable revenue quality.
- Separate enterprise value, equity value and net cash.
- Review clauses that can change economic value.
Startup valuation FAQ
Is DCF relevant for an early-stage startup?
It can clarify assumptions, but remains fragile when revenue is recent. It should be crossed with comparables, traction, team and market.
Which revenue multiple should be used?
It depends on sector, growth, margin, retention and market context. The simulator leaves the multiple as an assumption to justify.
Is the result a transaction price?
No. It is an indicative estimate. Price also depends on terms, cash, debt, investor competition and negotiation.
Why combine DCF and comparables?
Because they test different views. DCF challenges the financial plan; comparables reflect a market lens.
When should valuation be reviewed?
Before fundraising, an exit, a management package or a new shareholder entry. An independent review helps secure assumptions and documentation.
Professional sources
Updated on 4 May 2026. Results are not an independent valuation report or fairness opinion.
Go further
Need to defend a valuation?
We can review your DCF assumptions, comparables, cap table and finance data room before a fundraising or exit process.